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Dweeb Report :
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Monday, February 08, 2010 9:08:51 AM
THE DWEEBS, FLYING-FICKL-FINGER OF FATE FORECAST, PREDICTS MORE SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.....TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT......
AN OLD SAYING COINED BY LA'S 1960'S TV WEATHERMAN BILL KEANE, A SPLIT FLOW IS A WEATHERMAN'S WOE HAS NEVER BEEN MORE APPROPRIATE....AS TRYING TO FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE CURRENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE OF LATE. NEVERTHELESS...THE DWEEBS WILL CONTINUE TO DO THEIR BEST DURING THESE DIFFICULT TIMES!
THE NEXT SPLITTING SYSTEM WAS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. ALTHOUGH YESTERDAY MORNINGS MODEL RUNS TRENDED THE UPPER CENTER SOUTH AND FURTHER WEST. TODAY, BOTH GFS AND WRF ARE BACK IN SYNC IN BRINGING THE COLD LITTLE BUGGER TO NEAR THE BAY AREA, THEN RIDING THE COASTLINE INTO SO-CAL. THIS SYSTEM IS COLDER AND NOW HAS A TRAJECTORY FURTHER EAST. SO THE DWEEBS ARE INCREASING THE SNOWFALL EST....TAKING IN CONSIDERATION THAT THE AREA OF DEFORMATION/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA CREST, TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AMOUNTS COULD BE 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN TOWN. ALTHOUGH, THE NEW QPF FORECAST FROM CRFC IS ABOUT .4 OVER YOSEMITE, THE MAIN FOCUS AND LIFT SHOULD BE A BIT EAST OF THERE AND SO THE DWEEBS BEEFED IT UP A BIT, DUE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE DEFORMATION AREA. THIS STORM IS STILL IN THE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RANGE.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND COLD, AND EVEN COLDER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
ALL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO RIDGE US UP THURSDAY AND SO THURSDAY NIGHTS/FRIDAY SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN FOLLOWED BY A DECENT WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE.
LONGER RANGE:
ALTHOUGH DURING THE PAST WEEK, ALL LONGER RANGE MODELS HAD THE IDEA OF A STORM EVERY THREE DAYS.....NEW "MODEL TRENDS" ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY POSITIVE PNA INDEX. IT MAY BE THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE QUITE A BREAK FOR A WHILE.....STAY TUNED........................>>>
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS...................:-)
NEW UPDATED WEDNESDAY THE 4TH OF FEB.
NEW ENSO UPDATE FROM: CLIMATIC PREDICTION CENTER
El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
A significant El Niño persisted throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean during January 2010 (Fig. 1). Although sea surface temperature (SST) departures in the Niño-3.4 region decreased to +1.2oC in late January, SSTs continued to be sufficiently warm to support deep tropical convection (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3). Over the last several months, a series of oceanic Kelvin waves contributed to the build-up of heat content anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). The latest Kelvin wave was associated with temperature departures exceeding +2oC down to 150m depth across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Equatorial convection over the central Pacific remained enhanced during the month, while convection over Indonesia exhibited considerable week-to-week variability. While the low-level winds have been variable, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies generally prevailed during January. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a ""strong and mature El Niño episode"".
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WHY ARE THE DWEEBS SO INTERESTED IN SUNSPOTS AND THE CURRENT SOLAR MINIMUM?
BECAUSE IT IS MY "PERSONAL BELIEF" THAT IF THE SUN REMAINS IN A SIGNIFICANTLY QUIET PERIOD THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS AND BEYOND....ITS OUTPUT OF ENERGY OVER A TIME SCALE OF THE NEXT 5 TO 10 YEARS WILL HAVE A DIRECT CORRELATION TO GLOBAL TEMPERATURES WHICH CAN EFFECT "THE EARTHS WEATHER ON A CLIMATE TIME SCALE". THE FACT THAT THE SUN HAS BEEN SO QUIET NOW FOR SO LONG, AND THAT THIS IS NOT BIG NEWS IS PRETTY AMAZING!!
AS A NOTE, EVERYONE EXPECTS THE SUN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS. THE NUMBER OF SPOTS WILL INCREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS AND YEARS. THE BIG QUESTION IS.....HOW ACTIVE AND HOW MANY SPOTS AS COMPARED TO THE LONG TERM MEAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAGNETIC FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPOTS ARE WEAKENING.....
READ THE ARTICLES BELOW, AND THE MOST CURRENT BELOW THAT.
EXCELLENT ARTICLE BELOW!!
Are Sunspots Disappearing?
Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: ""Science@NASA""
09.03.2009
September 3, 2009: The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even a single tiny sunspot. The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder, are sunspots disappearing?
"Personally, I'm betting that sunspots are coming back," says researcher Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona. But, he allows, "there is some evidence that they won't."
Penn's colleague Bill Livingston of the NSO has been measuring the magnetic fields of sunspots for the past 17 years, and he has found a remarkable trend. Sunspot magnetism is on the decline:
"Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year," says Penn. "If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could completely vanish around the year 2015."
This disappearing act is possible because sunspots are made of magnetism. The "firmament" of a sunspot is not matter but rather a strong magnetic field that appears dark because it blocks the upflow of heat from the sun's interior. If Earth lost its magnetic field, the solid planet would remain intact, but if a sunspot loses its magnetism, it ceases to exist.
"According to our measurements, sunspots seem to form only if the magnetic field is stronger than about 1500 gauss," says Livingston. "If the current trend continues, we'll hit that threshold in the near future, and solar magnetic fields would become too weak to form sunspots."
"This work has caused a sensation in the field of solar physics," comments NASA sunspot expert David Hathaway, who is not directly involved in the research. "It's controversial stuff."
The controversy is not about the data. "We know Livingston and Penn are excellent observers," says Hathaway. "The trend that they have discovered appears to be real." The part colleagues have trouble believing is the extrapolation. Hathaway notes that most of their data were taken after the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 (2000-2002) when sunspot activity naturally began to decline. "The drop in magnetic fields could be a normal aspect of the solar cycle and not a sign that sunspots are permanently vanishing."
Penn himself wonders about these points. "Our technique is relatively new and the data stretches back in time only 17 years. We could be observing a temporary downturn that will reverse itself."
The technique they're using was pioneered by Livingston at the McMath-Pierce solar telescope near Tucson. He looks at a spectral line emitted by iron atoms in the sun's atmosphere. Sunspot magnetic fields cause the line to split in two—an effect called "Zeeman splitting" after Dutch physicist Pieter Zeeman who discovered the phenomenon in the 19th century. The size of the split reveals the intensity of the magnetism.
Right: Zeeman splitting of spectral lines from a strongly-magnetized sunspot. [more]
Astronomers have been measuring sunspot magnetic fields in this general way for nearly a century, but Livingston added a twist. While most researchers measure the splitting of spectral lines in the visible part of the sun's spectrum, Livingston decided to try an infra-red spectral line. Infrared lines are much more sensitive to the Zeeman effect and provide more accurate answers. Also, he dedicated himself to measuring a large number of sunspots—more than 900 between 1998 and 2005 alone. The combination of accuracy and numbers revealed the downturn.
If sunspots do go away, it wouldn't be the first time. In the 17th century, the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists. The sunspot drought began in 1645 and lasted until 1715; during that time, some of the best astronomers in history (e.g., Cassini) monitored the sun and failed to count more than a few dozen sunspots per year, compared to the usual thousands.
"Whether [the current downturn] is an omen of long-term sunspot decline, analogous to the Maunder Minimum, remains to be seen," Livingston and Penn caution in a recent issue of EOS. "Other indications of solar activity suggest that sunspots must return in earnest within the next year."
Whatever happens, notes Hathaway, "the sun is behaving in an interesting way and I believe we're about to learn something new."
THE DWEEBS COMMENTS; THE MAUNDER MINIMUM COINCIDED WITH THE LITTLE ICE AGE PERIOD, WHERE IT GOT NOTABLY COLDER GLOBALLY.
Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA
DEEP QUIET SEE: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/03sep_sunspots.htm
By Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That "November 5th, 2009"
I’ve looked at the Ap Index on a regular basis, as it is an indicator of how active the solar dynamo is. When we had sunspot 1029 recently, the largest in months, it gave hope to many that Solar cycle 24 had finally started to ramp up.
From the data provided by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) on November 2nd, you can see that October 2009 had little Ap magnetic activity. The value is now 3 for the month.
Leif Svalgaard points out to me another indicator of low solar magnetic activity. Bill Livingston was able to observe sunspot group 1029, and measure its magnetic field and contrast. Leif’s graph with my annotation for group 1029 is below. By itself, this one sunspot group isn’t significant, but it does fit into a prediction made by Livingston and Penn.
The measurement of sunspot group 1029 falls just where there should be on the Livingston and Penn predicted path to invisibility.
1. EXCELLENT SERIES OF ARTICLES AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
COPY AND PASTE:
http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/
2. READ ARTICLES FROM ICECAP.US
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/faqs-and-myths
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/longer_term_solar_minimum_dalton_or_maunder/
3. READ NEW EOS ARTICLE AT LINK BELOW:
http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009EO300001.pdf
ON THE TOPIC OF GLOBAL WARMING AND GLOBAL COOLING....EXCELLENT COMMENTARY BY DR. JEFF MASTERS; COPY AND PASTE LINK BELOW:
4. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1187&tstamp=&page=2
AND YET AN OPPOSING VIEW FROM ANOTHER SCIENTIST AND OTHERS:
5. http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf
6. http://www.examiner.com/x-13886-New-Haven-County-Environmental-Policy-Examiner~y2009m7d6-Solar-Physicist-Predicts-Ice-Age-What-happened-to-global-warming
NASA: 7. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/science/space/21sunspot.html?_r=2
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WX GLOSSARY
http://www.weather.gov/glossary/
Disclaimer:
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS HAVE BEEN HOBBYIST METEOROLOGISTS FOR 30 YEARS HERE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA..........I DO THIS FOR MY PERSONAL ENJOYMENT.....
MY SITE IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE U.S. CONSTITUTION, THE INTERNET AND MOST OF ALL,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAVES LIVES EVERY DAY....I DO NOT.
WHEN MAKING PLANNING DECISIONS THAT ARE EITHER FINANCIAL OR PERSONAL.....PLEASE USE THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE......THEY ARE THE MOST KNOWLEDGEABLE AND MOST ACCURATE INFORMATIONAL SOURCE AVAILABLE TODAY.
THE DWEEBER
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