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Dweeb Report :
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Friday, May 09, 2008 3:03 PM
"WEEKEND WEATHER LOOKS FAIR AND SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER SOME COOLING ON MONDAY....NEXT WEEKS HEAT WAVE IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS A POSSIBILITY BY NEXT THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY"
THE WELL ADVERTISED MEGA RIDGE IS IN ALL THE FORECAST MODELS THAT BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO CA BY MID WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL OFF SHORE PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, HOWEVER, THE SURFACE THERMAL TROF BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY. ITS GOING TO BE TOASTY ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN SOUTHERN CA COASTAL CITIES WILL HAVE A MODERATE OFF SHORE FLOW PATTERN WHICH MEANS 90S AND 100S, EVEN IN SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
BACK UP IN NORTH CENTRAL CA.....THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS/A RARE AND POTENTIAL RECORD EVENT/ FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....STAY TUNED AND KEEP OUT OF THE RUN OFF THAT WEEKEND......RIVERS WILL BE HIGH
LONGER RANGE:
LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK AFTER THE WEEKEND OF THE 18TH SHOWS THE THERMAL TROF MOVING BACK INTO THE DESERTS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SOME GRADUAL COOLING FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.
RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE FEATURES TOWARD THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WILL SPILL COOLER AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH POSSIBLE WINDY CONDITIONS.....JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL WEEKEND.....OF COURSE LONG LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE!!! ;-)
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS........:-)
CAVEAT EMPTOR:
WHEN BUYING INTO OR READING AND DISCUSSING LONG RANGE FORECASTS THE LATTER PART OF MARCH INTO APRIL AND BEFORE SUMMER, UNDERSTAND THAT THE SEASONAL CYCLE WILL BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT PLAYER IN ACCURACY. DO NOT EXPECT LONG RANGE FORECASTS TO BE NEARLY AS ACCURATE AS THEY WERE.....DURING WINTER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE CONTINENT PLAY A PART IN MODELS LESS ACCURACY. ADDITIONALLY....LA NINA'S EFFECT ON WEST COAST WEATHER IN THE WINTER HAS ALWAYS BEEN TO BIAS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIP AND AT THE SAME TIME, LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
IT HAS BEEN MY EXPERIENCE THAT WINTERS END EARLIER DURING LA NINA'S YEARS IN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THE DWEEBS FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON FOR THE WINTER OF 2008!
SUMMER OF 2008 OUTLOOK:
BASED UPON HISTORICAL LA NINA SUMMERS IN MAMMOTH LAKES; THE SUMMER OF 2008 WILL BE WARMER THEN NORMAL WITH SEVERAL DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THERE WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS IN THE LOW 90S IN MAMMOTH LAKES. THESE HOTTER DAYS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED THREAT OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING AND JUST AFTER AN UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. AS USUAL....LATER IN JULY, A PERIOD FOR A FEW WEEKS OF WETTER STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS MONSOON MOISTURE DRAWS UP AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL CONTINENTAL UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND RETURNS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA.
AS A SIDE NOTE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COMES THE THREAT OF A SUMMER SEASON WITH MORE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAN USUAL. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE HAD A CLOSE NORMAL SNOWFALL SEASON, THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE LIGHTNING RELATED FIRES WILL BE A CONCERN WITH A HIGHER FREQUENCY OF AFTERNOON LIGHTENING ACTIVITY.
WX GLOSSARY
http://www.weather.gov/glossary/
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS...................:-)
Disclaimer:
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS HAVE BEEN HOBBYIST METEOROLOGISTS FOR OVER 25 YEARS HERE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA..........I DO THIS FOR MY PERSONAL ENJOYMENT.....
MY SITE IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE U.S. CONSTITUTION, THE INTERNET AND MOST OF ALL,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAVES LIVES EVERY DAY....I DO NOT.
WHEN MAKING PLANNING DECISIONS THAT ARE EITHER FINANCIAL OR PERSONAL.....PLEASE USE THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE......THEY ARE THE MOST KNOWLEDGEABLE AND MOST ACCURATE INFORMATIONAL SOURCE AVAILABLE TODAY.
THE DWEEBER..................:-)
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